Water pump squeak?

[D-Day]

I'm wondering if I may have the dreaded water pump squeak...why are squeaks always precursors of doom?

I've had a slight squeak for over a year and a half, and never could get rid of it. Loose belts, tight belts, new belts, old belts...all the same. It did squeak a tiny bit less with new belts. It always seemed to get worse as it got colder. It generally does ease up after running a while, but this could also just be the water pump getting warm too. I can't discern.

I'm gonna ask around and get a second opinion on the noise, maybe they'll be able to tell. I just replaced the belts last year, not even a year yet, but I notice they feel smooth and glazed, slightly hard on the bottom where it contacts the pulley. I'm hoping it's just that, but we'll see.

How hard is a water pump to install? Be tempted to do it myself, but with it getting cold and crappy, not a lot of the room in the garage, and potential trips, I don't wanna mess something up. No time for trial and error.

Perhaps when I get my new computer, I'll take some video with my DVX100A at close range and upload it, maybe someone will be able to tell. Should be high quality enough audio.